23/12/2016

Pondering portable gaming prospects (2)


After having pondered the evolution of portable gaming until now, it's time to unroll my informed speculations regarding its future. 2017 is going to be a paramount year for portable gaming, because it's very likely over the course of that year that we are going to find out whether portable gaming as we currently know it has a chance to survive or not.

But before we even get there, we have to face the sad truth: 2017 will certainly mark the end of the 3DS' shelf life. Although Nintendo claim that they will continue to support the system after the release of the Switch, anybody who's been following them for more than a console generation knows that such promises are as empty as the Virtual Boy gaming library. If their track record regarding older console support is any indication, they will support the 3DS for a couple of months and then ditch it without a second though. In this particular case, they will probably wait until the handful of games that are still in development are released and then announce the end of the 3DS production. All this will likely take place before the end of 2017, and that means that we may well end up missing a couple of appetizing localizations in the process. For instance, I'm not too sure that games like Etrian Odyssey V and Monster Hunter Diary will arrive on our shores, unless publishers pull off tardy releases à la Devil Survivor 2. At any rate, the tiny number of slated 3DS releases for 2017 is quite telling: the 3DS is on its last legs and heading towards retirement, sooner rather than later. Although it's far from being my favourite portable console of all times, I'm a little bit sad at the though that Nintendo's ultimate dedicated portable system is about to go retro.

The question is, will the 3DS bail out alone or will it do so alongside the console that should have been its main competitor but never managed to rise up to the challenge, a.k.a. the Vita? Nothing seems to be clear-cut when it comes to the immediate future of the unofficial sanctum and anchorage for all games quircky and nichey, as Sony steadily refuses to mention the console at official events or comment on its possible future. While this snubbing is infuriating, it can also be interpreted in a positive way: as long as Sony is uttering no word about the Vita, they are at least not announcing the end of its production. And since they have no planned successor to their unloved portable, the Vita may actually endure longer that the 3DS and enjoy a much longer pre-retirement period. Indeed, there are tons of Vita games slated for physical release in 2017, both in Japan and in the West; and it's not a stretch to assume that the Vita will manage to survive until the beginning of 2018maybe even until late 2018 or early 2019. Despite pitifullly failing to fulfill Sony's expectations, the Vita has managed to carve itself a niche and to build up a small but devoted and passionate fan base, both in Japan and in the West. The type of games that are currently gracing the Vita can't be found on any other console, and there is undoubtedly a market for such games; this is why I can envision the Vita going strongin the niche acception of the wordfor a couple of extra years, supported by developers and publishers that won't find any better outlet for their budget niche games. In the best possible scenario, niche Vita releases will keep going until the market dries up and Sony will abstain from interfering, offering the black sheep of its console line-up a pleasant and peaceful departureand boy, isn't that the least they can do after ignoring it for years.

But regardless of how long the Vita clings to life, the survival of our beloved current brand of portable gaming is still at stake; and it hinges entirely on how the upcoming Switch will perform and how third-party developers will handle itmaking Nintendo once again THE company that will single-handedly make portable gaming or break it. We've reached a point where portable console gaming and home console gaming have become vastly different experiences, so much so that they should be discussed separately; and in what can only be described as a giant display of irony, they have somehow switched places over time. Portable gaming has claimed for itself the variety and boldness that used to characterize home console gaming back in the days, and home console gaming has shrunk and become just as lacklustre and samey as portable gaming used to be in its early stages. Home console gaming has become overcautious, tired and crusty while portable gaming is the avant-garde bristling with dynamism, and it's up to future Switch developers to maintain the latter's edge. If things turn out right, the Switch can even bring a breath of fresh air to home console gaming and shake it from its hyperrealistic AAA slumber.

In the most gloriously optimistic scenario, current 3DS and Vita developers will massively flock to the Switch and focus solely on the portable side of Ninty's all-in-one console, thus ignoring home console standards entirely and releasing games similar to the ones they've been releasing on former portable systems. Just because the Switch can behave like a home console doesn't mean that all developers must take that possibility into account and that every Switch game must abide to home console criteria. After all, many developers have a track record of diligently ignoring Nintendo's and Sony's gimmicks du jour, developing games as though dual screen, touch screens and stereoscopic 3D were never a thing; and they can keep ignoring Ninty's latest flight of fancy if they want to. Portable gaming would thus coexist peacefully with home console gaming on a single system; and if such a cohabitation turns out to be fruitful for all parties involved, it could definitely set a new standard for gaming consoles and encourage other hardware manufacturers to cross the Rubicon and start producing similar all-in-one systems that can cater to all brands of gaming.

In the most depressingly pessimistic scenario, most current 3DS and Vita developers won't make to move to the Switch, and those who do will ditch the current brand of portable gaming without a second though and start catering to the home console audience by releasing games bristling with open worlds, camera fiddling and attempts at hyperrealism. The portable games of the last twelve years will be dismissed as pitiful by-products of technical limitations and the whole console industry will bow down to home console standards. In such a case, the Switch will probably underperform dramatically compared to its counterparts and scare away potential developers, thus ending up as yet another third party games-deserted fiasco. And given that Nintendo are about to ditch the 3DS and fuse their home console and portable console departments in what is arguably the boldest and most dangerous move in their history, they will be left with no flourishing portable console department to fall back on and will most definitely go belly up for good.

Between these two extremes stands the reasonably realistic scenario, in which Nintendo and a handful of third-party developers will occasionally release the odd game inspired by former portable console standards, thus transforming the present-day brand of portable gaming into a niche of sorts. Mind you, there are actually a lot of clues pointing to that outcome to be found in the current home console landscape, as we are now seeing home consoles being graced with games that would have remained confined to the realm of portable gaming a couple of years ago. Sonic Mania, Mighty No. 9, Nitroplus Blasterz, Digimon Story Cybersleuth, every indie game ever Kickstarted into existence: you name them, the home consoles have themand portable consoles more and more often don't, which is just the weirdest situation ever. It's like home console gaming is trying to reclaim its long-forgotten diversity and taste for innovation while at the same time attempting to put portable gaming back in the place that it left so long ago, i.e. in the shadow of all TV-tied consoles. In such a scenario, the current brand of portable gaming, which is very much its own entity, would merge into home console gaming, and Gaming with a capital G would be unified once again under the old banner of home console gaming, with portable gaming being reduced to a mere hardware option like back in the days.

The Switch does have the potential to give birth to these three scenarios, which is just the most dizzying and overwhelming feeling. It's not a coincidence that analyses and commentaries are describing the Switch both as a portable console that can be plugged to a TV screen and as a home console with an extra portable display; just like Schrodinger's cat, the Switch is actually both of these things as long as it's not released. Only time, developer support and actual games will determine the destiny of the Switch, and by extension the destiny of portable gaming as a gaming trend of its own.

It goes without saying that I will follow the Switch's performances very closely. I don't think I've ever been that eager to see how a Nintendo console will perform, which is quite ironic given that I'm not even planning to buy the thing in the next years. Nevertheless, the Switch's fate will determine if I have to retreat into the solace of retro gaming for good or if the gaming industry still have some juicy bites to offer me, and it's definitely something I'm anxious to find out. The die is cast, and we'll see which number pops up. In the meantime, I'll enjoy my precious collection, give my bank account a well-deserved rest and keep writing about games for my pleasure and yours, dear fellow gamers. Thanks for reading, and be my guest anytime!

22 comments:

  1. Although I think you're painting the portable gaming's future way too bleak, I kinda agree. And you're also forgetting that some (or most) of the developers that focused on portables may make the jump to mobile. Even Nintendo who always said that they wouldn't develop games for mobile are now being lured with the easy money they can cash in from there by making a quick barebones game.
    Hopefully the Vita can still endure until 2018, enjoying some moderate success it will get due to the monopoly in the portable market after the 3DS retires. If the PSP managed to hold on for so long (it still got new english releases this year), why wouldn't the Vita?

    >"as empty as the Virtual Boy gaming library"
    Eh, the Virtual Boy was a complete blunder but it still has 3 or 4 games worth playing. Personally, that's more than the Wii U ever had.

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    1. Hey Sieg, long time no see! Merry Christmas to you. :)

      If developers that make the jump to mobile gaming keep developing niche games for the Switch, then it's totally fine by me. On the other hand, if they focus solely on mobile games, then there is nothing more to expect from them; because let's face it, the niche genres we favour don't translate well to current mobile devices. I'd rather give up on some franchises entirely than play their newest oversimplistic entries on mobile phones and tablets.

      "Eh, the Virtual Boy was a complete blunder but it still has 3 or 4 games worth playing": come on Sieg, that was a flash of humor! ^____^ I've seen enough Youtube videos to know that Virtual Boy Wario Land is supposed to be awesome, for instance. And I was actually referring to the number of games, not their quality... :P

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    2. Yeah, it's been a while since I've posted! But I've been following your articles anyway! And a Merry Christmas to you too, Isleif! :)

      The problem is that I'll bet that neither Nintendo or Sony want too many games that are associated with mobile gaming. Nintendo wants to avoid the "casual" or "simplistic games" labels their consoles keep getting since the Wii era and Sony certainly prefers to invest in the indie scene instead of struggling to port mobiles game for their console (PS4).
      And we're seeing more and more mobile spin-offs of games. Sonic, Mario, Toukiden, God Eater, Pokémon, etc. Companies are testing out the waters and they're been swayed by the easy bucks they can get from the mobile cash ins. While big names will obviously not turn into mobile only (like the ones I've listed), niche developers don't have the money to invest in home console quality for their games. Unfortunately, they will probably either resort to develop for mobile or PC only, areas where they save tons of money by not making boxed games and lower licencing fees.
      Unless Sony surprises us with a Vita 2, but I'm not that delusional. :p

      "I'd rather give up on some franchises entirely than play their newest oversimplistic entries on mobile phones and tablets."
      Amen to that.

      "come on Sieg, that was a flash of humor! ^____^"
      Oh, ups. I thought you were serious about that. My bad!

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    3. Oh, and I forgot to list the two or three Final Fantasy mobile games that Square developed.
      Surprisingly enough, Final Fantasy Record Keeper is actually a GOOD game with tons of stuff to do. A shame you have to put up with slow menus, a stamina system and a terrible gacha system.

      This reminds me though, I wonder when Romancing SaGa 2 is gonna hit the PSN? Square's been pretty silent about its release other than saying "it's coming, please wait".

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    4. >Sieg
      If it's anything like Adventures of Mana, Square will just poop it out on the PSN one day without any warning. Or they'll just be quiet and one day only release it on PS4 and PC, a la Setsuna. Either way, I don't let myself get too hopeful over squares releases anymore.

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    5. I still have some faith in Square. They could have cancelled the Vita version of World of FF for instance, or simply not say anything about Romancing SaGa 2's Vita version being localized. We'll see though.

      How's Setsuna anyway? I've only heard bad things about it and was regarded as a weak budget game in Japan too.

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    6. I am not too far into Setsuna. I kinda like the somber tone and the combat system, but something about it fails to grab my attention. I do not care one bit for any of the characters or the story and I haven't played it in longer bursts than half an hour. I'm too into Rune Factory 4 and Story of seasons at the moment, so that might be why.

      Maybe I'll change my mind once those other games stop taking away my attention for it, or maybe the story will get better by the end, but so far I find it to be "heh". It's not frustrating and I do have fun while battling, but everything else is boring. Including the environments, which I though I would like because I like winter, but they all feel incredibly similar and I don't have a lot of fun exploring them.

      I tend to like some games that flopped in Japan (like Lost Dimension, I loved the plot of that one), but I'll agree with the reviews on this one. Only play it if you don't have a more worthwhile game to play, or feel like playing something that is middle of the road and easy.

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    7. That goes along with what I read about the game then. A run of the mill RPG that has no really good or bad points. A shame they set the bar so high by comparing it with Chrono Trigger. That was the cause of much disappointment.
      Still, I'll probably end up importing it/buying it when I finally buy a PS4.

      >Lost Dimension
      The plot was decent yeah and so were the characters, but the rest of the game was pretty bad. And since I imported the JP version back then, it had tons of slowdowns, glitches and crashes. No wonder FuRyu's games sell terribly in Japan.

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    8. Gee, that's a true comment fest happening here while I'm busy digesting Christmas food! Guess I shouldn't leave the blog untended for too long, now should I? :P

      I'd like to be thrilled about Romancing SaGa 2, but my recent experiences with Square Enix have killed all my interest in their IPs. Adventures of Mana was a torture that I couldn't bring myself to finish and World of Final Fantasy left me cold, bored and utterly unimpressed. I'm thus not harbouring any kind of hope regarding Romancing SaGa 2, although I'll certainly take a look at it when it's finally released.

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    9. I still encourage you into trying out Romancing SaGa 2, Isleif. It's an obscure gem from the SNES/SFamicom era and it seems like Square actually made an effort by making a direct port with some graphical and mechanical tweaks and a couple of new stuff. From what I've seen, it's nothing like the horrible Adventures of Mana remake Square made.

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    10. well, I'll definitely take a look at it when it comes out. ^___^ If Square Enix handle it better than Adventures of Mana, it certainly has the potential to be a great title just by sheer virtue of being a Super Famicom game.

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  2. "that such promises are as empty as the Virtual Boy gaming library."
    Hahaha the Virtual Boy, god, Nintendo used to do even weirder crap back in the day. Though at least in those times they were smart enough to not mess with their main consoles. And this time they knew to stay away from the VR craze (which I'm sure is doomed to fail, look at how much VR developers, including Sony, had to lower their sales expectations. Sony went from 2.6 million to 750K). I'll never forgive them for giving the power glove another go though. It may have been successful, but the Wii's motion controls ruined the gaming scene for years and only now have we been able to get the stink of it out of gaming.

    The Wii U's library is almost as pathetically small as the virtual boy's though. Now, most of the games on it are amazing I admit, but still. Tokyo Mirage FE sold poorly for god's sake! Had it come out on any other console, even XBOX, would have made it sell infinitely better. Stupid Nintendo making console exclusive deals. Way to screw over Atlus.

    "making Nintendo once again THE company that will single-handedly make portable gaming or break it"
    Oh god, I know I've been bleak before, but reading that made me feel even worse. Especially when you consider the fact that Nintendo will definitely go belly up and become a mobile developer if this whole thing doesn't work, so it's not the most stable company to give this responsibility to. Having my gaming future put entirely upon them....

    But you know, even some portable games are going the way of AAA game's perils. I'm looking at you, Toukiden Kiwami 2 and its open world. Heck, even the new Dynasty Warriors 9 will have open world, what is the world coming to? So in a way, things were going to turn out this way eventually even if Nintendo and Sony just released upgraded versions of the Vita and 3DS. So maybe this whole innovation Nintendo is doing will save at least a little bit of the portable gaming niche.

    Or completely kick it in the balls and have everyone move over to mobile. My own personal nightmare. *sigh* I hope the Vita lasts into 2019, I really do. And you know, I had not noticed the thing about barely being any 3DS games planned for 2017. Man, so soon?

    On the bright side side, if Etrian Odyssey V for the 3DS is a thing, I'm sure the west will get it. Atlus has barely left any of its games remain Japan exclusives in the last couple of years and they don't seem to care about console life that deeply (they seem to know that it's not like people will throw their old gaming systems out the window the moment a shiny new one comes in). They were the ones who brought over Devil Survivor 2 after all. And now that they have a deal with deepsilver we Europeans don't have to live in fear any longer. Look, we got their latest 3DS game only 3 months later. What an improvement over more than a fricking year with its previous entry.

    Monster Hunter Stories, heh, given how that franchise's spin offs have an allergy to coming West, I wasn't expecting that game to be released anyways. It's like the Yokai Watch franchise, even though it's performing well in the west, we don't get any of its lovely spin offs. Though that might be because the localization teams will barely get any time to release the main 3DS games stateside before the 3DS goes belly up.

    ....man, I'll miss the 3DS despite everything bad I've experienced with it. The end of a great era :(

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    1. Hate to spam the blog, but I just read an article about how the Switch seems to be suited to open world games, and how such games are a priority to Nintendo. Yay. We all know we need vast open world games filled with nothing and barely any incentive to do quest or progress the plot, instead of self contained areas that are interesting and/or have lots of things to explore despite the small size. Like the classic Resident Evil mansion, the levels in old collectathon platformers like Spyro and Crash, Okami as a whole...yeah, screw those games. Look ma, I can go anywhere I want, with nothing to do but a kill a few enemies on the way and nothing to make the place visually memorable and being able to skip the plot almost entirely. Truly this is the future of gaming!

      *Single tear falls*

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    2. Just throwing my two cents but, I doubt Nintendo will hesitate in scrapping the Switch if things go bad like in the Wii U's case and simply make a 3DS 2 (which is what everyone wants, not another shitty gimmick console). They no longer have the huge money bags of the golden DS era.

      Also, I'm pretty optimistic for Toukiden 2, despite going open world. I loved (and still play) Toukiden Kiwami so, if nothing else, I'll give it a shot. Now I just hope Koei does a physical Vita version in Europe.

      >"but I just read an article about how the Switch seems to be suited to open world games"
      Wow, great job! Just what all the Nintendo supporters want!

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    3. I'd love for there to be a 3DS 2 if the switch doesn't work, but Nintendo is so far deep its own gimmicky ass that I can't see them releasing a simple upgraded handheld. I mean, even in their own games they don't now when to keep it simple, look at Starfox for the Wii U. After so many years with no new games, all they had to do was make a new starfox game with improved graphics and fans would have been happy, but nope. Gotta drag the game down with one of the most awful control schemes in gaming history, because otherwise the game wouldn't be "innovative" enough. We all saw the results of that.

      I adored Toukiden Kiwami so much that I immediately bought a second copy of it when I got a PS4. So I will definitely buy Toukiden 2 (though I'm gonna wait for its inevitable 2nd improved version). I'm just worried because I see no way the open world would improve the gameplay, so I think that this is an unneeded "improvement" added just to get mass appeal, and in the end it will be done badly and be a detriment to the game. But I'll give it and Dynasty Warriors 9 a try. They're from an eastern company, so perhaps their take on the open world will be refreshing and interesting, unlike the usual shlop of games developed in the west.

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    4. I really don't understand why the hell does Nintendo think that it needs to "innovate" with half-assed gimmicks. They have worldwide recognizable IPs, they have the brand name and they have the money, yet they keep implementing gimmicks in every single console of theirs, gimmicks that themselves end up not using in the long run (the 3D in the 3DS was largely ignored in these last years). I just want a simple, gimmick-free portable to play gimmick-free games that I like.

      From what I know from people who played the demo, it seems the open world is actually decently implemented. Let's be honest here, the PS4/Vita have tons of hunting games, more so the Vita since it also has Soul Sacrifice and Freedom Wars, so I kinda understand why Koei tried to differentiate Toukiden from the other games with the open world gameplay.

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    5. You're very welcome to "spam the blog", Elisa. Your comments are always so informed and well though out that it's a pleasure to read them. ^^^

      "Wow, great job! Just what all the Nintendo supporters want!": the problem is that there are not so many Nintendo supporters left out there, if the WiiU sale figures are any indications. From a business standpoint, it makes perfect sense for Nintendo to emulate popular gaming trends and go treading on Sony's and Microsoft's toes. That's obviously bad for us niche gamers; but unfortunately, Nintendo can afford to lose us along the way because we are so few, while they cannot afford to keep losing more mainstream gamers.

      "But you know, even some portable games are going the way of AAA game's perils": yes, they do. Some Vita games are basically home console games on a tinier screen, which is why the survival of niche gaming that has been associated with portable devices these last twelve years is now not so much a matter of hardware as it is a matter of wanting to keep said niche gaming alive, whether it be on a big or small screen. As we said before, there are encouraging signs that niche gaming could endure on the PS4 front, and the Switch has the potential to enforce that situation. It all hinges on developers, and I hope they won't disappoint us.

      I would love to see a 3DS 2 if the Switch fails miserably, but will Nintendo have the financial resources to pull off such a move if the Switch indeed fails? And will the gaming market still have some room for such a device? We'll see how things turn out, but I don't have much hope that we'll see another Nintendo console if the Switch fails.

      "I really don't understand why the hell does Nintendo think that it needs to "innovate" with half-assed gimmicks": I think it's their only way to differentiate themselves from their competitors. Since they routinely sucks when it comes to specs, they have to offer something different to bring gamers to the fold. Not that I support such a mindset myself, mind you: I actually hate Nintendo's focus on gimmickry. Take back your Amiibos, faceplates and useless 3DS and give me an console that's not region-locked, will you Ninty?

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    6. "And this time they knew to stay away from the VR craze (which I'm sure is doomed to fail, look at how much VR developers, including Sony, had to lower their sales expectations. Sony went from 2.6 million to 750K)": I'm pretty sure the VR will fail on the long run, for the same reasons that the 3D failed: the impossibility to share VR gaming experiences properly and the fact that it makes a good number of players physically sick. Once the novelty wears off, I'm pretty sure the VR fad will either become a pricey niche or disappear entirely.

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    7. If there's something to praise about Nintendo, it's their will to struggle until the bitter end. The new president is not like Iwata. He said himself that they need to show positive results to investors and to their loyal (and partly fanatical) fanbase. If the Switch adventure fails, I'm sure they will abandon it and make a new dedicated portable machine in the vein of the DS/3DS. Which, again, it's what most people want.

      >"Take back your Amiibos"
      I remember joking about the Amiibos but now I have like 7 or 8 of them... >_<

      >VR
      I'm not gonna bother even caring that this exists. It's expensive, it's cumbersome, it's limited, it's a one-way ticket to failure.

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    8. "If there's something to praise about Nintendo, it's their will to struggle until the bitter end. The new president is not like Iwata": I keep forgetting that Iwata's era is well and truly over and that substantial changes could be underway. If anything, that's an excellent reason to be optimistic about Nintendo's future.

      "I remember joking about the Amiibos but now I have like 7 or 8 of them... >_<": Hey, we are weak against Nintendo's formidable and well-oiled marketing machine. I remember swearing that I wouldn't by a Japanese 3DS; before finally caving in and purchasing one a couple of month later.

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  3. I had not considered Nintendo's new president at all. Maybe he will take the company in a good direction. The switch was in development before he took over, so if the switch fails maybe there's a higher chance that we'll get another good handheld. It's just that everyone seems to be insisting that mobile is taking over and that handheld gaming is dying, and as a mobile hater I just can't accept that. But Nintendo, who once said they would never do free to play, now have at least 5 free to play games and I'm sure at least Mario Run and Pokemon Go made them a lot of money. It seems the mobile plague is too tempting even for them.

    But I don't see them completely going mobile either, despite what everyone else is saying. Zelda would never work on mobile, for example. And since their consoles have failed horrendously, yeah, maybe there's a better chance of them ditching consoles completely than ditching handhelds.

    Most people I've seen talking about the switch seem to see it as a handheld first. Its specs are too weak to compete with a console, so the hardcore base is unlikely to be interested in it (we don't even know the full specs yet and people are already saying they won't buy it because it's weak). And we do see the switch being used mostly as a handheld during the commercial. We only see it docked for a few moments, the rest is focused on the different ways you can play with it on the go. Maybe the "home console" insistence is just marketing spiel to try to attract more customers since handhelds are inferior in the west. Maybe the handheld side will be seen as the primary side of the switch. I suppose we just have to wait and see.

    On the bright side, there's developers saying that it's the easiest current console to develop for. Couple that with it being cheaper too and it's a good recipe to attract third party niche developers.

    I still proudly have no Amiibos. I detest that they're like some sort of overpriced and rare DLC. Nintendo has always had the extremely stupid habit of under producing their products, but with the Amiibo they went too far. And I prefer littering my house with plushies rather than figurines, so I don't even care for them on that front. Not that I like Nintendo's IPs that much anyways. Pokemon and Fire Emblem don't truly count to me since they're made by other companies, just ransomed to Nintendo exclusivity.

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    1. "And we do see the switch being used mostly as a handheld during the commercial. We only see it docked for a few moments, the rest is focused on the different ways you can play with it on the go. Maybe the "home console" insistence is just marketing spiel to try to attract more customers since handhelds are inferior in the west. Maybe the handheld side will be seen as the primary side of the switch": That's a very good point, and something I had failed to notice until you mentioned it. If Nintendo themselves are trying to market the Switch as a portable device first and foremost, then it makes me a bit more optimistic about the future of all the gaming niche that are currently associated with portable gaming. For all the failures of Nintendo's home consoles, third-party developers have never deserted Nintendo's portable consoles, and I cannot envision then suddenly snubbing the Switch if the tablet turns out to be a full-fledged portable device and not an add-on of sorts.

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